Imagining an Israeli Strike on Iran

The Gay Secretary

This analysis misses one critical factor in this insane scenario, and that is the following; what if China (Iran's largest trading partner) and/or Russia step into the fray when Iran is attacked?

Just a little reminder; China and Russia do actually have nuclear weapons.

By DAVID E. SANGER

In 1981, Israel destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osirak, declaring it could not live with the chance the country would get a nuclear weapons capability. In 2007, it wiped out a North Korean-built reactor in Syria. And the next year, the Israelis secretly asked the Bush administration for the equipment and overflight rights they might need some day to strike Iran’s much better-hidden, better-defended nuclear sites.

They were turned down, but the request added urgency to the question: Would Israel take the risk of a strike? And if so, what would follow?

Now that parlor game question has turned into more formal war games simulations. The government’s own simulations are classified, but the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution created its own in December. The results were provocative enough that a summary of them has circulated among top American government and military officials and in many foreign capitals.

For the sake of verisimilitude, former top American policymakers and intelligence officials — some well known — were added to the mix. They played the president and his top advisers; the Israeli prime minister and cabinet; and Iranian leaders. They were granted anonymity to be able to play their roles freely, without fear of blowback. (This reporter was invited as an observer.) A report by Kenneth M. Pollack, who directed the daylong simulation, can be found at the Saban Center’s Web site.

A caution: Simulations compress time and often oversimplify events. Often they underestimate the risk of error — for example, that by using faulty intelligence leaders can misinterpret a random act as part of a pattern of aggression. In this case, the actions of the American and Israeli teams seemed fairly plausible; the players knew the bureaucracy and politics of both countries well. Predicting Iran’s moves was another matter, since little is known about its decision-making process. —DAVID E. SANGER

1. ISRAEL ATTACKS

Without telling the U.S. in advance, Israel strikes at six of Iran's most critical nuclear facilities, using a refueling base hastily set up in the Saudi Arabian desert without Saudi knowledge. (It is unclear to the Iranians if the Saudis were active participants or not.)

Already-tense relations between the White House and Israel worsen rapidly, but the lack of advance notice allows Washington to say truthfully that it had not condoned the attack.

2. U.S. STEPS IN

In a series of angry exchanges, the U.S. demands that Israel cease its attacks, though some in Washington view the moment as an opportunity to further weaken the Iranian government, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Telling Israel it has made a mess, Washington essentially instructs the country to sit in a corner while the United States tries to clean things up.

3. U.S. SENDS WEAPONS

Even while calling for restraint on all sides, the U.S. deploys more Patriot antimissile batteries and Aegis cruisers around the region, as a warning to Iran not to retaliate. Even so, some White House advisers warn against being sucked into the conflict, believing that Israel's real strategy is to lure America into finishing the job with additional attacks on the damaged Iranian facilities.

4. IRAN STRIKES BACK

Despite warnings, Iran fires missiles at Israel, including its nuclear weapons complex at Dimona, but damage and casualties are minimal. Meanwhile, two of Iran's proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, launch attacks in Israel and fire rockets into the country.

Believing it already has achieved its main goal of setting back the nuclear program by years, Israel barely responds.

5. IRAN SEES OPPORTUNITIES

Iran, while wounded, sees long-term opportunities to unify its people - and to roll over its opposition parties - on nationalistic grounds. Its strategy is to mount low-level attacks on Israel while portraying the United States as a paper tiger - unable to control its ally and unwilling to respond to Iran.

Convinced that the Saudis had colluded with the Israelis, and emboldened by the measured initial American position, Iran fires missiles at the Saudi oil export processing center at Abqaiq, and tries to incite Shiite Muslims in eastern Saudi Arabia to attack the Saudi regime.

Iran also conducts terror attacks against European targets, in hopes that governments there will turn on Israel and the United States.

6. IRAN AVOIDS U.S. TARGETS

After a meeting of its divided leadership, Iran decides against directly attacking any American targets - to avoid an all-out American response.

7. STRIFE IN ISRAEL

Though Iran's retaliation against Israel causes only modest damage, critics in the Israeli media say the country's leaders, by failing to respond to every attack, have weakened the credibility of the nation's deterrence. Hezbollah fires up to 100 rockets a day into northern Israel, with some aimed at Haifa and Tel Aviv.

The Israeli economy comes to a virtual halt, and Israeli officials, urging American intervention, complain that one-third of the country's population is living in shelters. Hundreds of thousands flee Haifa and Tel Aviv.

8. ISRAEL FIRES BACK

Israel finally wins American acquiescence to retaliate against Hezbollah. It orders a 48-hour campaign by air and special forces against Lebanon and begins to prepare a much larger air and ground operation.

9. IRAN PLAYS THE OIL CARD

Knowing that its ultimate weapon is its ability to send oil prices sky high, Iran decides to attack Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, an oil industry center, with conventional missiles and begins mining the Strait of Hormuz.

A Panamanian-registered, Americanowned tanker and an American minesweeper are severely damaged. The price of oil spikes, though temporarily.

10. U.S. BOOSTS FORCES

Unable to sit on the sidelines while oil supplies and American forces are threatened, Washington begins a massive military reinforcement of the Gulf region.

11. REVERBERATIONS

The game ends eight days after the initial Israeli strike. But it is clear the United States was leaning toward destroying all Iranian air, ground and sea targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran's forces were about to suffer a significant defeat. Debate breaks out over how much of Iran's nuclear program was truly crippled, and whether the country had secret backup facilities that could be running in just a year or two.

Such a Deal, Already!!

The Gay Secretary

This government cannot get out of the financial mess it has created, in part because they gave away the high technology manufacturing that was the golden goose of our economy to foreign countries. Then, in a relentless capitulation to corporate donors, the financial markets were turned into an open air casino where long-term investment growth was eschewed for short term speculative manipulations.

In short the Federal Government could not have screwed up this economy more if they had intended to(and many think it was). Being a government no longer of the people, but of lawyers and bookkeepers, every solution they can think of it s new law or a new accounting trick, neither of which can address the real problems of loss of productivity. Toss in the crumbling of America's infrastructure on which production and transport of product depends and America has collapsed as an industrial power.

The Hopi people have a word, Koyaanisqatsi, which means life out of balance, crazy times, and more to the point, a state of life that demands immediate change. We are there. It is time for a change.

Unless there is a sudden and dramatic change in direction this nation is doomed. As a nation, we cannot afford to continue the wars we are now mired in. As a nation, we lack the manufacturing might to survive a new global war. As a nation we can no longer afford to support the oligarchs of Wall Street, Washington, and Tel Aviv, while the very structure of our nation crumbles into rubble and corrosion. As a nation we cannot allow ourselves to be looted with more hoaxes like human-caused global warming, or health care on the pay-now-wait-years-to-use system.

Above all we cannot afford the taxes we have now, let alone the higher taxes planned by the government. Taxes not only sap the wealth of the people, taxes sap the enthusiasm and energy of the people, who would be willing to work hard to rebuild the nation but balk at ever higher loads of work the benefits of which seem to flow everywhere but where it is needed. The embassies get million-dollar foreign crystal but our roads are crumbling. The President is shopping for a new Air Force 1 but half the schools are closed. The number of billionaires in the US doubled last near along with the number of homeless. The United States can send Israel billions of dollars in weapons but cannot keep its own people fed. It is one thing to get the people to work hard to build their own communities. It is unrealistic to demand that hard work to give away that wealth far over the horizon, no matter how many guns you point at them. This has been tried more times than can be counted throughout history and it always ends badly. Insanity is repeating the same behavior over and over again and expecting a different outcome.

Something has gone very wrong with this government. I no longer think it can be repaired. I did for the first 12 years I ran this website. But now I have come to a different conclusion about this government. It is hopelessly mired in its own greed and short-sightedness. It is broken and corrupted beyond salvage and the time has come to consider a replacement.

The REAL reason Google is leaving China

The Gay Secretary

Via chinadaily.com.cn:

Google’s withdrawal is not a purely commercial act. The incident has from the beginning been implicated in Washington’s political games with China.

[...]

Given that Facebook, Twitter and YouTube have no access to the Chinese Internet market, the White House believes that Google alone cannot play a large role in China as it did in Georgia and Iran.

[...]

Google’s accusations against China are completely groundless. The company has so far failed to submit any convincing evidence of the Chinese government-aided hacker attacks on its search engine.

The article goes on to point out how hypocritical Google is being considering they routinely share user information with governments around the world and also help them censor search results.

The bottom line is Google never gained popularity in China so they pulled out. This move was encouraged by the Obama regime because they realized the CIA would not be able to conspire with Google to manipulate the Chinese public – as done in countries like Georgia and Iran.

The CIA version of the story is at Business Week.

Gets Lead Instead

The Gay Secretary

A Moultrie burglary victim was ready when someone tried to break in on her again Tuesday night. She opened fire and shot the intruder.

Tamika Seay's home on Second Avenue Southeast was broken into March 12th. So she went out and bought a gun, and Tuesday night when she heard someone breaking in again, she grabbed it, and started shooting.

Michael Daniels was hit by a bullet. He ran out of the house, but later showed up at a hospital.

Police say he will be charged with burglary.

Chris Rock - How not to get your ass kicked by the police!

Hacker gets 20 years for stealing credit card data

American Scofflaw
One down, how many to go??

A computer hacker from Miami who orchestrated one of the largest theft of credit and debit card numbers in U.S. history was sentenced Thursday to 20 years in prison after he apologized for leading a scheme that cost companies, banks and insurers nearly $200 million.

Albert Gonzalez, a one-time federal informant, pleaded guilty last year to breaking into the computer networks of major retailers, including TJX Cos., BJ's Wholesale Club, Barnes & Noble, OfficeMax, and the restaurant chain Dave & Buster's.

U.S. District Judge Patti Saris sentenced Gonzalez to the middle of the 15- to 25-year range spelled out in a plea agreement Gonzalez reached with prosecutors.

Just before he was sentenced, the 28-year-old Gonzalez apologized as his mother, father and sister watched from the front row of the courtroom. His father wept softly and dabbed his eyes with a handkerchief.

Gonzalez said he did it not out of greed, but instead "because of my inability to stop my pursuit" and "my (Internet) addiction."

"I blame nobody but myself," he said.

He said he did not give much thought to people whose credit and debit card numbers were stolen. "I always thought that they were being made whole by their financial institutions," he said.

Authorities said Gonzalez amassing $2.8 million he used to buy a Miami condo, a car, Rolex watches and a Tiffany ring for his girlfriend. They said Gonzalez and two foreign co-defendants would drive past retailers with a laptop computer, tapping into those with vulnerable wireless Internet signals. The trio would then install "sniffer programs" that picked off credit and debit card numbers as they moved through a retailer's computers before trying to sell the numbers overseas, authorities said.

Gonzalez, who was known online as "soupnazi," was a self-taught computer genius.

Computer Files For Miami Budget Deleted

American Scofflaw
Yeah right!!!

The X-Files, for those who do not love sci-fi, is an old show that always had Agents Mulder and Scully searching the paranormal to unravel the mystery of the week. They would have had a heck of a time at Miami City Hall.

The latest mystery popped up Tuesday. Miami Mayor Tomas Regalado said, "Today we learned someone erased a lot of budget files from the city." Critical budget files erased--and apparently on purpose the mayor said--at a time when the city is swimming red ink and its finances are being probed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

A frustrated Regalado told me, "These are the kinds of things that cannot continue to happen in the city of Miami. It is a climate where everybody is trying to save their job."

The mayor said Miami Police have been asked to investigate, and city officials have started their own internal probe. The good news—the mayor said the computerized budget files can be recovered. The bad news—he apparently has another headache diverting attention from exploding union pension costs, dropping property values, and a budget that is cracking under the strain of both.

Miami Budget Director Michael Boudreaux was fired Monday at the start of a promised shake-up amidst questions about multi-million dollar money transfers from restricted city funds that may have made the city's budget picture look far rosier than reality.

No fingers of blame are being pointed at Boudreaux over the mystery of the erased budget files. His lawyer, Michael Pizzi, said they better not be. Pizzi said, "Neither myself nor my client has been contacted about that. He knows nothing about that."

Pizzi added that his client will sue the city over his abrupt firing. He added, "I say Michael Boudreaux is a scapegoat and a sacrificial lamb for decisions made by the former mayor and commission, by the former manager and upper level staff."

It all adds up to more drama for elected city leaders, who vow to stick together. Miami commissioner Francis Suarez said, "I think the overarching message is we are acting as a unified body, (with) the commission in cohesion with the mayor to immediately make sure this runaway budget does not get out of control."

Stay tuned. In the X-Files the writers knew how each week's drama would play out. There is no such luck in Miami these days for a mayor and commissioners who may be in for a far rockier ride than they ever imagined.

Netanyahu and Obama aren't fooling Anyone

The Gay Secretary

Joe Biden, the great champion of Israel, was humiliated when Israel used the occasion of his visit to defy America and announce a plan for 1,600 more homes in the disputed East Jerusalem area.

Ah yes, the zoning issue; a tempest in a teapot, or a molehill amplified into a huge mountain for political theater.

I am not excusing Israel's violation of International Law or continuing defiance of the United Nations, it is just that after all the settlements already built, the kerfuffle over this latest one seems obviously promoted in the media.

Which is why I am convinced that this is indeed a staged political theater piece for the express purpose of creating the illusion of a US / Israeli political divide to give Israel deniability over the coming US attack on Iran.

UN to produce bullion coins as world currency

by sakerfa

The announcement by the United Nations this week that it will license the minting of silver and gold bullion coins bearing the UN logo may be the button that launches metal prices into orbit.

In its wide-ranging report this fall, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) stated that the system of currencies and international banking practices within today’s economies were inadequate, and responsible for the present economic crisis. The report advocates that the present monetary system, wherein the dollar acts as the global reserve currency be re-examined “with urgency”.

The UNCTAD Report was the first time a major multinational institution had forwarded such a suggestion or measure, although a number of countries, including Russia and Brazil have supported replacing the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. China’s central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan has mentioned that the dollar could become a basket of currencies instead.

The UN commission dismissed such a widening, saying a multiple-country system “may be equally unstable, and not transparent.”

The panel is seeking more monetary balance for developing countries, and a means for them to retain their reserves and domestic savings independent of foreign agencies and arrangements.

Panel Chair US economist Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel economics laureate, has made plain that there was “a growing consensus that there are problems with the dollar reserve system. Developing countries are lending the United States trillions dollars at almost zero interest rates when they have huge needs themselves,” Stiglitz stated.

“It’s indicative of the nature of the problem. It’s a net transfer, in a sense, to the United States, a form of foreign aid.”

A report contributor, Detlef Koffe, concluded that “Replacing the dollar with a bullion currency would solve some of the problems related to the potential of countries running large deficits and would help stability,”

US Fed spokesperson Patrick Paulsen acknowledged that there could be some strong reaction in the US to the global currency, and that it would “…be viewed as a step toward a New World Order. But those same people have probably lost patience with the money-changers as well.”

He clarified that he would “…nonetheless anticipate that the western currencies will continue to depreciate, given Asia’s ascendancy in trade and manufacturing, to find their own value and enable their economies to compete. This is a UN perogrative we cannot and should not control, it’s returning to what we had with Bretton-Woods.”

The UN decided to provide a “public option” savings currency, whereby currency mints will be licensed to mint two kinds of bullion coins the size of the 1€ coin – the Uno (silver ~$5) and the Oro (gold, ~$500). The names were adopted from the book “The Humanist”, which foresees the UN being better funded by 2015 via its licensing fees, expected to be 10-15%.

The coins have a marker chemical in them that enables their authentication and processing by modified retail ATM and exchange machines in Europe, which will be distributed globally. Any licensee, public or private, can produce such bullion coinage under contract. The United Nations is doing no more than what most countries do already, except that the value of its coins will reflect their bullion weight.

Armand Dufour of the European Bank welcomes their introduction. “People have enough Fiat currency options, government and banks cannot intrude on bullion coins – they will have their own inviolable value.”

He does have one concern, however. “If we see a dismounting from the US dollar, as is inevitable in the main view, there will be a strong move to the Oro, which may drive its price up to the point where governments will not allow its circulation; they will try to isolate it.”

“That’s when the fun begins.” he said.

THE “SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP” IS NOT DEAD

The Gay Secretary

The story of the new document that proves the White House directly intervened in the 9-11 investigation proves that Israel is still holding the truth of 9-11 over the US Government's head, in order to blackmail the US Government into doing Israel's bidding. The story about bunker-busters being shipped to Diego Garcia suggests that the US is doing as it is told and is preparing to attack Iran's non-existent nuclear weapons by which we mean the power stations and medical isotope facilities.

But, Israel is afraid of being seen as the cause for the US attack. Abe Foxman is already out bloviating that Israel has never, EVER, asked Americans to fight Israel's wars for them. Technically, he is correct. Israel tricks the US into making war on Israel's enemies (see The Lavon Affair, the attack on the USS Liberty, and the fake radio transmitter in Tripoli as examples).

So, in order to forestall retaliation by Iran or its allies against Israel, Israel has decided to appear to be separating from the US politically, so that when the US sends the bombers into Iran to smash the place, Israel can say, "Who? Us!?!"

Of course, this deception won't fool Iran or any other world leader, but no doubt when Iran does counter attack through our troops in Iraq to get to Israel, no doubt ABCNNBBCBS will scream that Iran is attacking Israel 'without just cause' in order to urge escalation into a full blown WW3.

Because I do not think for a moment Israel would allow the US the slightest chance to break free of the chains Israel worked so hard to place on our politicians.

UN brings in top scientists to review IPCC report on Himalayan glaciers

American Scofflaw

Note that the goal of the meeting isn't to find out what is really happening with global warming, but to "restore public confidence in science of global warming", i.e. re-brand, repackage, and re-sell the same snake oil all over again.

And note that the UN and IPCC are trying to put all the focus on the one bogus claim about the Himalayan Glaciers.

But of course, the loss of trust in the global warming cult is not based only on the lie about the glaciers. The AGW cult has been destroyed by numerous and repeated lies, exaggerations and frauds.

In addition to the glaciers, there was the CRU computer code, which showed that the entire "hockey stick" was a fabrication.

There were the Climategate emails which showed a coordinated and deliberate campaign of suppression of any opposing viewpoints.

There was the British Court ruling that found numerous points in Al Gore's "documentary" to be outright lies, such as claiming that increasing CO2 led to increase in temperature which the ice core data shows exactly the opposite; that first the temperature goes up, and then CO2 increases!

There is the video of the former head of Greenpeace admitting that the claims about Greenland losing its ice cover in 20 years were totally made up fantasies to scare people into signing donations checks!

There were the temperature sensors in colder high latitudes being shut down.

There was the temperature sensors found sitting in air conditioning outflows and in one document case next to a trash incinerator.

There was the new paint applied to the boxes holding the temperature sensors that increased the internal temperature by a whole degree!

The list goes on and on and the gaffe over the Himalayan Glaciers is just a tiny part of the whole scandal, but apparently the one the UN and IPCC feel they can refute while ignoring the rest, in order to "restore public confidence in science of global warming", i.e. re-brand, repackage, and re-sell the same snake oil all over again.

They must really think you are stupid!

A Picture is Worth A Thousand Words

Huge Wave hits cruise ship

Activist ‘Green’ Lawyers Billing U.S. Millions in Fraudulent Attorney Fees

by Richard Pollock

Without any oversight, accounting, or transparency, environmental activist groups have surreptitiously received at least $37 million from the federal government for questionable “attorney fees.” The lawsuits they received compensation for had nothing to do with environmental protection or improvement.

The activist groups have generated huge revenue streams via the obscure Equal Access to Justice Act. Congressional sources claim the groups are billing for “cookie cutter” lawsuits — they file the same petitions to multiple agencies on procedural grounds, and under the Act, they file for attorney fees even if they do not win the case. Since 1995, the federal government has neither tracked nor accounted for any of these attorney fee payments.

Nine national environmental activist groups alone have filed more than 3,300 suits, every single one seeking attorney fees. The groups have also charged as much as $650 per hour (a federal statutory cap usually limits attorney fees to $125 per hour).

In well over half of the cases, there was no court judgment in the environmental groups’ favor. In all cases, whether there was any possible environmental benefit from the litigation is highly questionable. Most cases were simply based upon an alleged failure to comply with a deadline or to follow a procedure.

A whistleblower who was employed for 30 years by the U.S. Forest Service told Pajamas Media:

Some organizations have built a business doing this and attacking the agencies on process, and then getting “reimbursed.”

This week a bipartisan group of congressional members introduced legislation to end the secrecy of the payments and force the government to open up the records to show exactly how much has been paid to the groups and the questionable attorney fees. The legislation was sponsored by Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyoming), Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD), and Rep. Rob Bishop (R-Utah).

Congressional sources have said the disclosure was necessary to determine the extent of fraud and abuse. The $37 million is considered only a fraction of what has been paid out to the activist groups.

“For too long, taxpayers have unwittingly served as the financiers of the environmental litigation industry,” Rep. Bishop, who also is the chairman of the Congressional Western Caucus, said.

Rep. Herseth Sandlin remarked: “Simply put, this legislation is about ensuring good and open government.”

“It’s time to shine some light [on the program],” explained Rep. Lummis, who said the groups have created an industry that “supports their ‘stop everything’ agenda.”

The $37 million figure is considered low. It includes less than a dozen groups and only accounts for cases in 19 states and the District of Columbia. There are hundreds of eco-activist groups in the United States.

According to the whistleblower who served in the U.S. Forest Service, environmental activist groups typically file identical lawsuits to multiple agencies on procedural grounds, such as a missed deadline.

The identity of the huge revenue stream was established by the Western Legacy Alliance (“WLA”), along with Wyoming-based attorney Karen Budd-Falen. Western Legacy Alliance was founded in 2008 by ranchers and resource providers who raise beef and lamb on public lands of the West. What they found was astounding.

Obama has the authority under the Constitution to call that Treasury Department and order them to issue a new United States currency

The Gay Secretary

Lincoln did it.

Kennedy did it.

This would mean there was sufficient currency to bring back jobs and prosperity for the people.

Obviously the bankers hate it when a government issues money without borrowing it from them and indeed when Hitler abandoned the reserve banking system imposed on Germany after WWI and substituted a value-based currency, three things happened. The German people began to prosper, Hitler was made Time Magazine's "man of the Year" for the German economic miracle, and the bankers declared economic war on Hitler which eventually led to a real war.

Real" Unemployment Could Surge to 25%, Portfolio Manager Says